WHERE AMERICA STANDS ON TRUMP:  The polls will be fluid, and, as we've said, we use polls to suggest trends rather than precise numbers.  From Fox: 

While nearly half of Americans support the second indictment of former President Donald Trump relating to his alleged mishandling of classified documents after leaving office, many also believe it was politically motivated.

On Thursday, Trump announced he was indicted by Special Counsel Jack Smith on 37 federal counts relating to the unlawful retention of classified documents, describing the investigation to Fox News Digital as "the greatest witch hunt of all time."

A recent ABC/Ipsos poll conducted after the shocking indictment found that 48% of Americans think Trump was rightfully charged in the classified documents case, while 35% do not think he should have been indicted. About 17% reported feeling unsure about whether the former president should have been indicted the second time.

Among political parties, 86% of Democrats and 45% of independents said they support the indictment, while the majority of Republicans, 67%, disagree with the charges against Trump.

The unsealed indictment states that during his presidency, Trump "gathered newspapers, press clippings, letters, notes, cards, photographs, official documents, and other materials in cardboard boxes that he kept in the White House." Smith also claimed Trump showed classified documents to others twice in 2021.

According to the poll, 47% of Americans think the charges against Trump are politically motivated, 37% said they do not think that politics are driving the investigation, and 16% do not know.

About 42% of American believe the charges are very serious, while 28% do not think the charges against the former president should be taken seriously.

While the former president says he will plead not guilty, the poll suggested that 46% of Americans think that given the charges, Trump should halt his 2024 campaign for president. Despite some concern, 38% believe he should continue his campaign, while 16% did not have an opinion.

The survey also revealed that 2024 contenders Trump and President Joe Biden both have a favorability rating of 31% among voters. The ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted from June 9-10, 2023, in English and Spanish with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.  

In March 2022, the FBI launched a criminal probe into alleged unlawful retention of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago, seizing 102 documents with classification markings from Trump's Florida home during an unexpected raid in August 2022.

COMMENT:  I think what the numbers show is what we should reasonably expect – that no matter
how much Americans believe that the proceedings against Trump are politically motivated, they are impressed with some of the specifics of the charges against him.  What Americans seem to be asking Trump is, "We know this is all about politics, but did you actually do these things?"  It is a wearing down process.  The Israelis call it "salami tactics" - one slice at a time.

It's impossible to say how long Trump can last as the GOP frontrunner, given his legal woes.  And there are more woes coming.  Will there be a point where even his strongest supporters, and pro-Trump operatives in the Republican Party, will say, "We love you, Mr. President, but we must win the 2024 election, and another candidate is needed." 

Richard Nixon, during Watergate, was persuaded to leave the presidency by a committee of Republicans who told him he would not survive an impeachment trial.  Is such a committee in Trump's future?  What would he say to them?

And will Joe Biden falter medically, raising the most profound questions about whether he can head the 2024 Democratic ticket?  Will the Democratic race open up?

The coming year will not be boring.

June 12, 2023